Take-up of statutory paid paternity leave: the Daddy of all bogus statistics

“Only a third of eligible fathers taking paternity leave” (People Management)

“Just a third of eligible fathers take paternity leave” (HR News)

“Only one in three fathers take paternity leave, research suggests” (Daily Mail)

“Just a third of eligible new fathers took paternity leave in the last year” (HR Magazine)

“Only a third of eligible new fathers are taking paternity leave” (Jersey Evening Post)

If these headlines – all from July this year – feel a bit familiar to you, that’s because you have seen them before. You saw them last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. Because, as previously noted on this blog, they are all based on a press release that law firm EMW regurgitates every summer. Admittedly, EMW do throw in a bit of variation: one year it’s ‘Only one third of fathers are taking paternity leave!’, and the next year it’s ‘Two thirds of fathers are not taking paternity leave!’ Clever!

So, for example, here are the Independent and HR News in the summer of 2019, reporting that “fewer than [a] third of new fathers take paternity leave”. And here are the Telegraph and HR News in the summer of 2020, reporting that “two thirds of new fathers are still not taking paternity leave”. How great it must feel to be a ‘journalist’ at HR News.

Things got a little more interesting in 2021, when the impact of the Covid19 pandemic and the £65bn furlough scheme allowed EMW to rebrand the same set of raw HMRC data, obtained by an annual Freedom of Information request, as “paternity leave take-up drops to lowest level in 10 years”. This secured headlines in the Independent, and in the specialist journals Personnel Today and People Management. The ‘journalists’ at HR News must have been on furlough, or something.

However, with new fathers no longer able to choose between taking one or two weeks of statutory paternity leave on £150 per week or continuing on furlough on 80-100% of their normal wages, the number of statutory paternity pay claimants has bounced back, and this summer EMW reverted to “Only a third of eligible new fathers are taking paternity leave”. Which, as well as securing the headlines above, seemingly led the Fatherhood Institute to note that “latest figures suggest that only a third of fathers take paternity leave”.

Which is a little odd, because in a 2017 report the Fatherhood Institute noted that “large surveys covering a range of employment sectors consistently show between two-thirds and three-quarters of eligible fathers taking some statutory paternity leave, with 55% taking at least [sic] their full ten days”. Indeed, in June 2014, research by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) concluded that “55% of fathers take the full two weeks off work when their child is born”.

So, what is the rate of take-up of statutory paid paternity leave? Well, to answer that question, we need two bits of information: the number of new fathers who take statutory paid paternity leave (the numerator): and the number of new fathers who are eligible to take statutory paid paternity leave (the denominator).

The numerator is easy: HMRC has routinely provided the data in response to numerous Freedom of Information requests by the law firm EMW and others, including yours truly. [Update: The data is now publicly available in this Answer to a Parliamentary Question.] Here’s a table:

(It’s worth noting that these figures include both ‘fathers’ and a small number of same-sex partners of the birth mother. In 2021/22, for example, 2,200 (1.1%) of the 204,200 claimants were female. However, this detail has never troubled EMW or any of the ‘journalists’ who have typed up EMW’s press releases since 2019, so I am parking it too. Furthermore, the figures include a degree of double counting: HMRC has confirmed that “where a given spell of [statutory paternity pay] extends across [the boundary between] two years, the claimant will be included in both years’ figures”. However, this double counting matters more when we consider the number of SMP claimants – see below.)

The denominator, however, is tricky, as no one knows how many new fathers are eligible to take statutory paid paternity leave each year [and, since I posted this blog, the new BEIS minister, Kevin Hollinrake, has confirmed that the Government has not made any estimate of the number]. To arrive at their take-up rate of ‘one third’, EMW have assumed that the number of eligible new fathers is the same as the number of new mothers who start on statutory paid maternity leave, which – based on the raw data provided to them by HMRC – EMW have taken as 654,000 in 2018/19, 649,000 in 2019/20, 652,000 in 2020/21, and 636,000 in 2021/22.

As previously noted on this blog, there are several reasons why this assumption is not necessarily valid, but it is certainly one of several approaches to estimating the number of fathers who are eligible for statutory paternity leave that are available to us. Though we need to add to the figures in the previous paragraph at least some of the 50-60,000 new mothers who start on Maternity Allowance each year, as the HMRC figures used by EMW are only for Statutory Maternity Pay (SMP).

However, the raw HMRC figures for SMP used by EMW do not show the number of women who started on SMP in that year. Because – as explained previously on this blog – the raw HMRC figures include a significant amount of double counting.

Furthermore, if our starting point is the partners of women who start on statutory paid maternity leave (on either Maternity Allowance or SMP), then we have to allow for the fact that a significant proportion of those fathers are not eligible for statutory paid paternity leave. In some cases, this is because the father is not in employment (in recent years, the employment rate in the 25-34 and 35-49 age groups has been about 85%), and in others it is because the father is working, but has not worked for their current employer for long enough (at least 26 continuous weeks) or is self-employed.

The Fatherhood Institute cites a 2017 analysis by the TUC that it says indicates that “two out of five working fathers [i.e. 40%] are ineligible either because they are self-employed or because they have not worked for their employer for long enough”. In fact, the TUC itself suggested that 25% – not 40% – of working fathers are ineligible.

And, if we (i) adjust the raw HMRC data on SMP starts for double counting; (ii) add Maternity Allowance starts; (iii) apply the male employment rate (85%); and (iv) apply the TUC’s ineligibility rate of 25%, we get a chart showing ‘take-up of statutory paid paternity leave among eligible fathers’ that looks like this:

Now, I’m going to stick my neck out and suggest there is something wrong here. I don’t think take-up of statutory paid paternity leave among eligible fathers averages 92% (after excluding the atypical year 2020/21). One possibility is that the TUC’s suggestion that 25% of working fathers are ineligible for statutory paid paternity leave is wide of the mark. And another is that the number of women who start on statutory paid maternity leave is not as good a starting point for estimating take-up of statutory paid paternity leave among eligible fathers as EMW and everyone who cites their figures thinks it is. Yes, I’m looking at you, HR News.

An alternative proxy for the number of new fathers who are eligible for statutory paid paternity leave might be the number of new fathers who are eligible for shared parental leave. We don’t know the latter number either, but we do at least have an official Government estimate of it (see p29), which is a maximum of 285,000 per year. There are a number of reasons why the number of new fathers who are eligible for statutory paid paternity leave is likely to be different to the number who are eligible for shared parental leave, but using that 285,000 as a proxy does give us a somewhat less ridiculous-looking chart (note the slight change of scale on the right-hand side, made for aesthetic reasons):

Yes, that’s an annual average (excluding the atypical 2020/21) of at least 74% (it will be higher, if the actual number of eligible fathers is less than the maximum of 285,000 estimated by the Government). And 74% is a bit more than ‘one third’.

But if you don’t like that approach, I have others! One would be to start with the number of live births, reduce that by the proportion of new mothers who are single parents (BEIS has used 16%, but this may be out of date), apply the male employment rate (85%), and then apply the TUC’s ineligibility rate of 25%. This gives us a chart that looks like this (again, note the slight change of scale on the right hand side of the chart):

Excluding the atypical 2020/21, that’s an annual average of 53%. And there’s good news! Thanks to the falling number of live births, the trend is upwards: in 2021/22, by this measure, take-up was 56% – that is, much the same as the 55% suggested by that IPPR research in 2014. Which is quite a bit less than 74%, obviously. But still quite a bit more than ‘one third’.

If I had to put money on it, I’d say that take-up of statutory paid paternity leave among eligible fathers is probably somewhere between 53% and 74%, and most likely in the region of 60%. Which (a) is closer to the findings of those large surveys cited by the Fatherhood Institute; and (b) is not bad, when you consider the pitiful rate at which such statutory leave is paid (currently, just £156.66 per week, equivalent to less than half of the National Minimum Wage). Given the ‘health and safety’ purpose of such leave – to enable the father or other second parent to support the birth mother at and immediately after the birth – there is a very strong case for it to be paid at 90% of average weekly earnings, like the first six weeks of Statutory Maternity Pay, rather than at the flat rate.

That would help push take-up among eligible fathers towards 100% (in 2014, the IPPR suggested that it would raise take-up to 70%). But we also need to shrink that 25% of working new fathers (or whatever the proportion is) who are not even eligible for statutory paid paternity leave.

In December 2019, the Conservative general election manifesto committed the now lamented Boris Johnson-led Government to “look at ways to make it easier for fathers to take paternity leave”. However, three years on, there is no evidence of ministers or officials having since done any such ‘looking’, and certainly no policy proposals have been forthcoming. Maybe in due course.

On the other hand, in its September 2021 Green Paper on employment rights, the Labour Party committed the next Labour government to “extending statutory maternity and paternity leave”, which I am reliably informed means ‘extending eligibility’ to those who currently miss out on such entitlements, including by making them ‘Day One’ rights.

The way things are going, that next Labour government could be along quite soon. But let’s at least make 2023 the year when everyone throws EMW’s annual press release about take-up of paternity leave straight in the bin. Because it’s pretty clear that, whatever it may be, the rate of take-up of statutory paid paternity leave is not “only a third”.

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Employment Tribunal claims: latest data

Two months ago on this blog, I welcomed the (partial) return of both the quarterly ET statistics and the monthly HMCTS management information on ET receipts and disposals. And last week the latest set of the latter gave us the broad picture to June 2022, i.e. up to the end of Q1 of 2022/23.

As the following chart shows, total ET receipts (single claims + multiple claimant cases) continue to run at just under 60% of the peak level seen in late 2020, and at 75% of the level seen in the last three quarters before the onset of the Covid pandemic in March 2020.

However, even at a level not seen since before the abolition of ET fees in July 2017, receipts continue to exceed the number of disposals, and accordingly the backlog of cases is now creeping back towards the peak seen in early 2021.

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Bogus news stories about ET claims reach record high

Yes, it’s the Silly Season, which Wikipedia helpfully defines as “the period lasting for a few summer months typified by the emergence of frivolous news stories in the media”. So, naturally, a ‘news story’ that the Covid-related trend towards working from home (WFH) and hybrid working has led to a massive increase in the number of employment tribunal claims for bullying is all over the supposedly specialist Human Resources media.

The number of employment tribunal claims lodged [sic] citing allegations of bullying has increased by 44 per cent over the past 12 months, reaching record highs, new research has revealed. The analysis, conducted by law firm Fox & Partners, found that bullying claims [sic] increased from 581 to 835 between March 2021 and March 2022.  The firm dubbed the findings a “canary in the mine” moment for many organisations, suggesting this may signal that leadership teams are failing to address a growth in toxic work cultures. People Management (the voice of the CIPD)

Ivor Adair, partner at Fox & Partners, said: “Tackling workplace bullying is no easy task, particularly in changing work environments. The record number of bullying claims [sic] is a worrying sign that some leadership teams have struggled to maintain healthy workplaces during the shift to hybrid working.” Personnel Today

Research from law firm Fox and Partners found there were 835 tribunals relating to bullying in 2021/22, up 44% from the previous year. The number of claims [sic] has more than doubled since the 412 recorded in 2017/18. Hybrid working environments, the report suggested, have brought new forms of bullying to the workplace, such as leaving colleagues out of remote meetings, comments over video calls, and gossiping over messaging platforms. HR magazine

“WFH may not be working for everyone. A record number of bullying claims [sic] have featured in lawsuits at the UK’s employment courts over the past year, in a sign that while working from home is welcomed by many, it’s also contributing to tensions for others.” Bloomberg UK

There is just one teeny weeny problem with this story: neither Fox & Partners nor anybody else know how many employment tribunal claims citing allegations of bullying were made in each year since 2017/18, as ‘bullying’ is not a jurisdiction identified in the official tribunal statistics published by the Ministry of Injustice (and the Ministry has not yet published any breakdown of new tribunal claims by jurisdiction for 2021/22). And, if we do not know how many claims there have been, we cannot say that there has been any increase. And we certainly cannot ascribe that increase to WFH or hybrid working.

No, all that Fox & Partners have done is conduct a word search for ‘bullying’ on the HMCTS online register of employment tribunal decisions. But the ET decisions on the register are only a small proportion – about one in eight – of all ET claims made, as the great majority of claims are settled or withdrawn without a tribunal decision. For example, in 2017/18 there were 110,098 ET claims, but only 13,560 ET decisions were published on the register. And in 2020/21 there were 117,926 claims, but only 14,579 decisions were published on the register.

Furthermore, the number of ET decisions containing any particular word or phrase such as ‘bullying’ or ‘numpty employment lawyer’ is of course influenced by the total number of ET decisions, which goes up and down (in 2021/22, just 12,680 decisions were published on the register, down from 25,895 in 2019/20). In other words, what would matter (if it mattered at all) is not the number of decisions containing that word or phrase, but the proportion of all decisions containing that word or phrase.

So, while the Fox & Partners ‘research’ (which I replicated in about five minutes on the register earlier today) tells us that the number of decisions including the word ‘bullying’ increased from 412 in 2017/18 to 708 in 2019/20, it overlooks or deliberately ignores the fact that the total number of decisions published on the register also nearly doubled, from 13,560 in 2017/18, to 25,895 in 2019/20. So what is presented as a 72% increase, from 412 to 708, was actually a decrease, from 3.04% to 2.73%.

In any case, an ET decision can of course include the word ‘bullying’ without the ET claim having had anything to do with the Covid pandemic, working from home, or hybrid working. Indeed, it can include the word ‘bullying’ without the claim having involved any allegation(s) of bullying – it could just be an incidental reference to the employer’s Harassment & Anti-Bullying Policy, for example. (Between 2019/20 and 2021/22 there was a 1,494% increase in the number of ET decisions containing the word ‘hybrid’, but … well, I’ll leave you to think about why that was). If you don’t believe me, take a look at the first few decisions that come up if you do a word search for ‘bullying’ in 2021/22. And do feel free to let me know how many decisions you can find in which the claim related to leaving colleagues out of remote meetings, making comments over video calls, or gossiping over messaging platforms.

Fox & Partners would have needed to read through each of the 835 decisions in 2021/22 that include the word ‘bullying’, and those in other years, and tell us how many of the associated claims actually involved allegations of bullying linked to WFH or hybrid working. But they haven’t done that. Because that would have taken (a lot) more than five minutes.

All Fox & Partners have done is spot a random and meaningless increase in the number of ET decisions (not claims) containing the word ‘bullying’, and then assert a link to the pandemic-related trend towards WFH and hybrid working. But that ‘link’ is entirely spurious. Fox & Partners have not identified any upward trend in the number of ET claims citing allegations of bullying, let alone any upward trend in the number of ET claims citing allegations of bullying linked to WFH or hybrid working. So the resultant media coverage is not just frivolous, but entirely bogus.

Fox & Partners may just as well have asserted a link between the trend towards WFH and the 73% increase in the number of ET decisions containing the word ‘chocolate’ in 2021/22. Or the 46% increase in the number of ET decisions containing the word ‘penis’. Well, it stands to reason, doesn’t it? The trend towards WFH is allowing everyone to get their dick out during office hours.

WE INTERRUPT THIS BLOG TO BRING YOU AN IMPORTANT PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION

Yes, as any regular reader(s) of this blog will have spotted, this is just another variant of the old ‘Get Our Law Firm’s Name in The Papers in The Hope of Drumming-up Some Much-needed Business by Issuing a Press Release With an Eye-catching But Totally Rubbish Story About ET Claim Numbers’ trick.

And, as documented on this blog, numpty journalists fall for it every time, mindlessly typing out the law firm’s press release and hitting the ‘publish’ button. My favourite is still the 13,000% increase in age discrimination claims in Scotland in October 2020, which got typed up by numpty journalists at the Guardian, Daily Express, Telegraph, Daily Mail and Yorkshire Post, as well as at People Management and Personnel Today. Fox & Partners are regular performers of the trick, as are GQ Littler, who did a similar search for ‘flexible working’ on the register of ET decisions in January (you can even just tick a box to search decisions for ‘flexible working’).

The Silly Season will soon be over. But unscrupulous employment lawyers will continue to use this tired trick, and numpty journalists will continue to fall for it.

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So. Farewell then, BEIS minister Paul Scully

With apologies to EJ Thribb

Update, November 2023: Sadly, Minister Scully did not get to do much, if any, levelling-up as Minister of State at the DLUHC, as in October 2022 he was demoted back to Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State and moved to the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport. In February 2023 he was shunted to the newly-created Department for Science, Innovation and Technology. And on 13 November he was finally given what he calls “the Spanish Archer” by Rishi Sunak.

Further update: On 4 March 2024, Mr Scully announced on social media that he will stand down as an MP at the coming General Election. His parting gift to politics was to assert that mainstream politicians can “work with the bell curve or become the bell-ends”. Amen to that.

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Employment Tribunal stats: Welcome back, we’ve missed you!

As noted previously on this blog, the introduction of a new Case Management System in March 2021 has led to a dearth of official statistics on Employment Tribunal receipts and disposals. And, in January this year, the President of the Employment Tribunals in England & Wales, Judge Barry Clarke, noted that this ongoing ‘data silence’ was “a cause of immense frustration to the leadership judges of the Employment Tribunals. For obvious reasons, the lack of reliable data was significantly impairing operational and strategic decision-making.”

In October, HMCTS did release some limited data on Employment Tribunal receipts (but not disposals) for the period August 2020 to August 2021, but this simply led some – including yours truly – to question whether it was credible that the number of new cases had fallen by 42% between November 2020 and May 2021 – that is, just when the new Case Management System was being introduced.

Well, yesterday HMCTS not only included some data on both Employment Tribunal receipts and disposals in the latest set of quarterly tribunal statistics, up to March 2022, but also published some new monthly management information up to April 2022. And this confirms not only that the number of new cases did indeed fall by 42% between November 2020 and May 2021, but that it continued to fall further: in December 2021, the number of new cases (2,298) was 51% down on that in November 2020 (4,669). And we have to assume that HMCTS is now pretty confident of the reliability of these figures – so, sorry for doubting you, HMCTS peeps.

In the first few months of 2022, the number of new cases has bounced back a bit, but the new data confirms that the number of new cases has fallen significantly since late 2020, and is now running somewhat below pre-Covid levels.

Anyway, that’s the good news. The bad news is that, with disposals also down slightly, this pretty dramatic fall in new case numbers has not (yet) been matched by a significant fall in the deeply problematic backlog of cases, which – after receding from its Covid-induced peak in late 2020 – has flatlined over the last four quarters. This needs to change.

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Maternity leave: Lies, damn lies and statements by BEIS minister Paul Scully

In recent years, BEIS minister Paul Scully – a strong contender for the hotly-contested title of Most Idiotic Minister in the Johnson Government – has repeatedly and brazenly claimed that “the UK’s maternity leave system is one of the most generous in the world”. Here he is in June 2020, for example, defending the Government’s claim that “the UK’s maternity leave offer is among the most generous in the world” while giving oral evidence to the Petitions Committee of MPs. And here he is two years later, in February 2022, mindlessly regurgitating that claim in the House of Commons.

And, last week, Minister Scully was at it again. In Answer to a Parliamentary Question tabled by Labour’s shadow employment rights minister Justin Madders MP, the Minister boldly asserted that “the UK’s maternity leave entitlement is one of the most generous in the world, with employed women entitled to 52 weeks of maternity leave, of which 39 [weeks] are paid”.

Doh! The UK’s paid maternity leave entitlement is only “one of the most generous in the world” if you overlook the teeny-weeny fact that, in most other comparable countries, most of the statutory paid leave available to working women who have just given birth is called parental leave, not maternity leave. And, in the UK, new mothers get no paid parental leave. Zilch. Nada. Rien. Here’s a chart that even Minister Scully should be able to get his head around.

Yes, in terms of the duration of paid maternity/parental leave available to new working mothers, the UK’s maternity leave system is more generous than that in Belgium, Iceland, Ireland, Malta, Portugal and Switzerland. But it is less generous than that in Austria, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden … need I go on?

And do new mothers in Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Sweden feel hard done by because they get fewer weeks of paid maternity leave than women in the UK? Of course they don’t.

So, if the UK’s maternity leave system isn’t “one of the most generous in the world” in terms of the duration of the paid leave available to new mothers, maybe Minister Scully had another measure in mind? Because, of course, the overall ‘generosity’ of any system of paid leave is a combination of the length of the leave entitlement, and the rate at which it is paid.

The OECD uses two alternative measures of the overall ‘generosity’ of paid maternity/parental leave. The first of these is the average payment rate, i.e. the % of previous earnings replaced over the length of the paid maternity/parental leave entitlement for a woman earning 100% of average national full-time earnings. And, as the following chart clearly shows, on this measure the UK’s maternity leave system is very far from being “one of the most generous in the world”.

The second measure of the ‘generosity’ of paid maternity/parental leave used by the OECD is full-rate equivalent, i.e. the duration of paid maternity/parental leave in weeks if it were paid at 100% of previous earnings. And, as the following chart shows, some countries (Finland, Hungary, Latvia, the Netherlands) do better under this measure than they do under ‘average payment rate’. But the UK … not so much.

In short, Minister Scully’s claim that “the UK’s maternity leave offer is among the most generous in the world” is as delusional as the Prime Minister’s defence of his attendance at boozy parties in Downing Street during lockdown. The Covid regulations did not allow ‘work leaving dos’ or ‘morale-boosting speeches by the boss’, and at less than half of the legal minimum wage the UK’s statutory maternity and parental pay of just £156.66 per week is not going to secure the UK a top slot in international league tables.

But with a new parliamentary e-petition calling (somewhat modestly) for that pitiful rate of pay to be increased in line with the cost of living heading towards the threshold for a Westminster Hall debate of 100,000 signatures, it may not be long before Minister Scully is back in the House of Commons, telling MPs that the UK’s maternity leave offer is already among the most generous in the world. And – who knows? – by then the Minister may be able to tell us the outcome of the review of the UK’s chronically failing Shared Parental Leave scheme that his officials started more than four years ago.

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The Taylor Review is dead, long live the Warman Review!

So, just two days after shelving a repeatedly promised Employment Bill intended to deliver a raft of policy pledges made as long ago as February 2018, Boris Johnson has launched a new review into the future of work. Because the 2017 Taylor Review of Modern Working Practices didn’t tell us enough about “the implications of new forms of work on worker rights and responsibilities”, obviously.

The Terms of Reference for the Warman Review appear to have been written by an intern at the Cabinet Office. On their first day in the job. But that doesn’t matter because, thanks to an interview that the Prime Minister gave to the Daily Fail on Friday, we already know that the Review will conclude that working from home involves far too much making coffee and walking slowly to the fridge to hack off a piece of Beaufort d’été, and everyone should just get back to the office.

Meanwhile, some family rights groups are doing what ineffectual BEIS officials want them to do: provide some cover for ineffectual BEIS ministers by bigging up the possibility of Government-backed Private Members’ Bills designed to deliver some of the Government’s abandoned policy pledges ahead of the PMB ballot later this week (a possible ‘strategy’ first flagged by The Times on 2 May, and by yours truly on this blog).

Of course, the Employment Bill’s omission from the Queen’s Speech on 10 May does not mean that ministers cannot introduce the Bill – or one or more mini-Employment Bills – in this parliamentary session. Governments routinely introduce new legislation that wasn’t mentioned in the previous Queen’s Speech. But with three other (sizeable) Bills in the new legislative programme, it does seem unlikely that BEIS ministers will find the time and energy to pull rabbits out of hats before a general election in 2023.

In any case, the principal obstacle to progress on the outstanding promises on workers’ rights is not the Johnson Government’s lack of parliamentary time but – as Women & Equalities Committee chair Caroline Nokes MP noted on Friday – its “lack of will or care to foster a fairer and more equal society”.

Whatever, in the House of Commons on Thursday – during the Fairness at Work-themed debate on the Queen’s Speech – equalities minister Kemi Badenoch insisted both that the Government doesn’t need to have the Employment Bill that it has repeatedly promised, and that the Government is still committed to having the repeatedly promised Employment Bill that it doesn’t need.

Kemi Badenoch MP, House of Commons, 12 May 2022

Update, 22 September: So, the Warman Review has been shelved.

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Workers’ rights: delivery delays

Now that Boris Johnson has put his lockdown-busting partying behind him and just wants to “get on with delivering”, perhaps he and his Government will use next week’s Queen’s Speech to finally start delivering on some of their many outstanding promises to enhance workers’ rights.

We’ve known for some weeks that the Queen’s Speech is unlikely to include the repeatedly promised ‘Big Bus’ Employment Bill but, as noted previously on this blog, that doesn’t necessarily preclude there being one or more smaller legislative vehicles delivering some of these outstanding policy pledges. Because, as the following chart shows, some of these policy pledges have been outstanding for some considerable time.

In November 2017, then BEIS minister Margot James promised the Women & Equalities Committee of MPs that BEIS would complete an evaluation of the Shared Parental Leave scheme – introduced in 2015 and already known to be failing – in 2018. That evaluation was underway by 26 April 2018 but, four years on, it is still stuck in the bowels of BEIS. Presumably, officials with wet towels wrapped around their heads are working night and day to come up with a form of words that convincingly presents a woeful take-up rate of just 2% as ‘broadly in line with our target of 25%’.

In February 2018, in its response to the July 2017 Taylor Review of Modern Working Practices, the Government pledged to tackle the blight of zero-hours contracts and other insecure work by introducing a right to request a more predictable and secure contract. This pledge was then repeated in the Conservative manifesto (see pp 37-39) for the December 2019 general election, and in the subsequent Queen’s Speech as part of the promised Employment Bill (see pp 43-44).

In October 2018, following an evidence-gathering and consultation process kicked off by his predecessor Sajid Javid as long ago as August 2015, then business secretary Greg Clark promised new legislation to ensure tips go to workers in full. This pledge was then repeated in the December 2019 Queen’s Speech, as part of the promised Employment Bill, and was bigged up by BEIS minister Paul Scully as recently as September 2021.

“New measures to support workers, businesses and entrepreneurs”, BEIS press release, 1 October 2018

In December 2018, the Government’s Good Work Plan included a promise to legislate to improve the clarity of the employment status tests (a need identified by the 2017 Taylor Review). And it reiterated the February 2018 promise to “legislate to give all workers the right to request a more stable contract”.

In July 2019, in direct response to the 2016 findings of the Equality & Human Rights Commission’s landmark investigation into pregnancy & maternity discrimination in the workplace, and an August 2016 recommendation of the Women & Equalities Committee of MPs, the Government pledged to extend the period covered by the existing redundancy protections. In 2021, both the Women & Equalities Committee and the Petitions Committee urged ministers to get on with implementing this outstanding policy commitment. However, Maternity Action, the TUC, Maria Miller MP and others have repeatedly suggested that more fundamental reform is needed.

At the same time, the Government committed to establishing a Taskforce of employer and family representative groups to develop an Action Plan to make it easier for pregnant women and new mothers to stay in work. No such Taskforce has been established, but in the summer of 2021 BEIS established a Pregnancy & Maternity Discrimination Advisory Board to “consider the information and guidance available on pregnancy and maternity discrimination, to ensure it continues to be relevant and is effective in supporting employers and employees”. Intended to meet “on a quarterly basis until March 2023”, to date the Board has met only once, on 23 September 2021, and in March 2022 the campaign group Maternity Action – winners of the 2022 Halsbury Award for Rule of Law – were banned from further attendance by a senior BEIS official.

In December 2019, the Conservative general election manifesto (see pp 37-39) promised a consultation on making flexible working the default, and falsely claimed that the Government has already acted on the (still outstanding) July 2019 pledge to reform redundancy protections. The flexible working consultation was eventually held between 23 September and 1 December 2021, but it was clear from the consultation document that the Government has abandoned any idea of making flexible working the default.

Conservative general election manifesto, December 2019

The general election manifesto also promised the creation of a single enforcement body (to “crack down on any employer abusing employment law”), repeated the February 2018 pledge to introduce a right to request a more predictable and stable contract, pledged a new right to one week of (unpaid) carer’s leave, and promised legislation to introduce neonatal leave and pay. All four of these pledges were then repeated in the December 2019 Queen’s Speech, as part of the promised Employment Bill (see pp 43-44).

The pledge to introduce neonatal leave and pay was later reaffirmed in the Government’s March 2020 consultation response (and explicitly funded in the March 2020 Budget), and the promise to create a new right to one week – one week! – of unpaid carer’s leave was reaffirmed in the Government’s September 2021 consultation response.

The December 2019 general election manifesto also committed the Government to “look at ways to make it easier for fathers to take paternity leave”. However, there is no evidence of ministers or officials having done any such ‘looking’ since 2019, and certainly no policy proposals have been forthcoming.

In July 2021, a Government Equalities Office consultation on sexual harassment concluded with the Government committing to “introduce a duty requiring employers to prevent sexual harassment” in their workplaces, along with explicit protections from third-party harassment.

Boris Johnson does indeed need to get on with delivering. And, as the Times reported yesterday, those ‘smaller legislative vehicles’ to deliver (some of) the outstanding policy commitments that would have been in the now shelved Employment Bill don’t need to be government bills. They could be Government-backed Private Members’ Bills, conveniently endorsed by one or more of the ‘parrots in the echo chamber’ (© Barbara Keeley) of the above-mentioned BEIS Advisory Board on Pregnancy & Maternity Discrimination, from which BEIS has otherwise inexplicably expelled the incompliant Maternity Action.

Boris Johnson speaking to Gary Gibbon of Channel 4 News, 21 April 2022
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Employment Bill: other legislative vehicles are available

Three weeks ago on this blog, I suggested – with a little help from the great Tracey Thorn and Ben Watts – that ministers have shelved their long-promised Employment Bill (again). And on Friday a (rather thinly evidenced) story in the Financial Times indicated that the Bill is indeed unlikely to appear in next month’s Queen’s Speech (on 10 May).

However, as alluded to in my reworking of EBTG’s “Missing”, the withdrawal from service of the ‘Big Bus’ Employment Bill does not mean the Queen’s Speech will not contain one or more smaller, standalone legislative vehicles carrying specific ‘reforms to our employment framework’. So, what might be aboard these compact legislative minibuses?

In December 2019, when the Employment Bill was born, ministers promised it would:

  • Create a new, single enforcement body, offering greater protections for workers.
  • Ensure that tips left for workers go to them in full.
  • Introduce a new right for all workers to request a more predictable contract.
  • Extend redundancy protections to prevent pregnancy and maternity discrimination.
  • Allow parents to take extended paid leave for neonatal care.
  • Introduce a new legal entitlement to one week’s leave for unpaid carers.
  • Make flexible working the default unless employers have good reason not to.

We already know, from the BEIS consultation that ran between 23 September and 1 December last year, that the Government has abandoned the last of these commitments, despite it having been an explicit manifesto commitment (hence the blatantly dishonest title of the BEIS consultation document). There may still be some minor changes to the ‘right to request’ regime, but these could be implemented by tweaks to the secondary legislation (i.e. the 2014 Regulations). So, no legislative minibus.

Despite some snail-paced progress towards the creation of a single enforcement body – in June last year the Government published its response to the consultation it had conducted between July and October 2019, and this reaffirmed the (manifesto) commitment – it is clear BEIS is nowhere near ready to proceed with the necessary legislation, even if Boris Johnson is still on board (a very open question). So, no legislative minibus on this route, either. The TUC will be (secretly) pleased about this.

However, in recent months ministers have come under intense pressure from Conservative MPs such as Luke Hall to deliver on the commitment to introduce neonatal leave and pay, as affirmed in both the Government’s March 2020 response to its 2019 consultation and the March 2020 Budget, which earmarked the necessary funding to deliver the new entitlement from April 2023. And, when pressed during Prime Minister’s Questions on 17 November last year to “bring forward a standalone Bill”, rather than wait for the Employment Bill, Boris Johnson assured the SNP’s David Linden that:

One way or another—I will get back to him on the exact way—we will legislate to allow parents of children in neonatal care to take extended leave, giving them more time during the most vulnerable and stressful days of their lives.

So, I think we can expect a legislative minibus on neonatal leave and pay in the Queen’s Speech. Which may well also have on board the promised new right to one week of carer’s leave. Such a legislative minibus would be universally welcomed, and accordingly would sail through Parliament without difficulty.

Similarly, since 2020 ministers have come under sustained pressure from both the Women & Equalities Committee, chaired by Caroline Nokes, and the Petitions Committee, chaired by Labour’s Catherine McKinnell, to deliver on the July 2019 commitment to extend the period covered by the existing Regulation 10 redundancy protections.

That commitment was made in response to the findings and recommendations of the EHRC’s 2015-16 inquiry into pregnancy and maternity discrimination in the workplace, and an August 2016 recommendation by the Women & Equalities Committee, then chaired by Maria Miller. In their February 2021 report on the gendered impact of the Covid19 pandemic, the Women & Equalities Committee urged ministers to deliver on the July 2019 commitment “in this Parliamentary session”, i.e. by May 2021. And, noting the Government’s failure to do that, in September 2021 the Petitions Committee’s second report on the impact of the pandemic on pregnant women and new parents concluded:

We echo our recommendation from [our July 2020 report] that the Government should legislate as soon as possible to introduce its planned extension of redundancy protections for new and expectant mothers. It must clarify a timeframe for doing this, and, if there is not sufficient parliamentary time to consider a full Employment Bill before the end of the year, the Government should immediately bring forward a short Bill specifically to implement these protections.

So, there could be another legislative minibus, on redundancy protections, in the Queen’s Speech. However, this one would not be universally welcomed, and could face a very rough ride through Parliament, not least because the Labour Party, campaign groups such as Maternity Action and Maria Miller MP have repeatedly said that more meaningful reform is needed. Indeed, such a Bill would be a bit of a gift to shadow ministers.

This means we can’t rule out the possibility that ministers have decided to renege on the July 2019 commitment (or, at least, to leave it rusting away in the bus garage for now). Which might explain why BEIS ministers have recently chosen to kick Maternity Action off their Pregnancy & Maternity Discrimination Advisory Board, the creation of which was another part of that July 2019 commitment – to “establish a Taskforce … to develop an Action Plan on what steps Government and other organisations can take to make it easier for pregnant women and new mothers to stay in work” – and which met for the first (and so far only) time in September last year. So, while the Government has a shiny new Action Plan on Animal Welfare, six years on from the EHRC research it still has no Action Plan to tackle pregnancy and maternity discrimination at work.

The pledge to ensure that tips left for workers go to them in full is an even older one, having first been made in October 2018, following a BEIS consultation that ran from 2 May to 27 June 2016. And it was reaffirmed in the Government’s September 2021 response to that consultation. Given that then business secretary Sajid Javid kicked off this somewhat bizarre sequence of review, consultation, pledge and consultation response as long ago as August 2015, it’s not entirely clear how much priority ministers give to this particular commitment, but I will not be totally surprised if we find a legislative minibus with this on board in the Queen’s Speech. Or if we don’t.

As for the promised new right to a more predictable/stable contract – which dates from the Government’s February 2018 response to the Taylor Review, and was repeated in the 2019 Conservative manifesto – I suspect that one is still in a box marked ‘too difficult’ on a shelf in a room hidden away at the back of Kwasi Kwarteng’s bus garage.

Anything else? Well, in July last year a Government Equalities Office consultation on sexual harassment concluded with the Government committing to “introduce a duty requiring employers to prevent sexual harassment” in their workplaces. As with neonatal leave and pay, a legislative minibus carrying such a preventative duty would be widely welcomed, and would most likely sail through Parliament. And it would provide some cover for not proceeding with the July 2019 pledge on redundancy protections.

And let’s not forget that the 2019 Conservative manifesto included a pledge to “look at ways to make it easier for fathers to take paternity leave”. There’s no evidence of ministers and officials having done any such ‘looking’ since 2019 – and their four-year evaluation of the chronically failing Shared Parental Leave scheme has yet to conclude – but maybe they will surprise us. And, again, this might explain why BEIS have booted Maternity Action off their Advisory Board.

Or perhaps ministers will finally act on the 2016 recommendations of the Equality & Human Rights Commission, the Justice Committee and the Women & Equalities Committee, and the April 2020 recommendation of the Law Commission, to extend the Employment Tribunal time limit.

Time will tell. Not long to wait now.

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Missing: the Employment Bill

[With apologies to Tracey Thorn and Ben Watt]

I step into Hansard
I’m wonking down your street again
And past your door, but you don’t live there anymore
It’s two years since you were in the manifesto
And now you’ve disappeared somewhere, like outer space
They’ve found some ‘alternative legislative vehicles’

And I miss you, like the workers miss their rights
And I miss you, like the workers miss their rights

Could you be dead?
You always were going to be a very big Bill
We’d try to amend you while you would run
We looked at their ‘in due courses’
And their ‘when parliamentary time allows’
Where we always wanted to be

And I miss you (like the workers miss their rights)
And I miss you (like the workers miss their rights)

But now they will only ‘outline employment measures’
Or ‘reforms to our employment framework’
And Kwasi Kwarteng has said
There will be No Big Bus
You’re long gone, but I can’t move on

And I miss you (like the workers miss their rights)
And I miss you, yeah (like the workers miss their rights)
And I miss you

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